Evaluation of the applicability of Gail model as a predictor of breast cancer risk in women from Bahia

Abstract

Purpose: To evaluate the accuracy of Gail model applied to women from Bahia. Methods: It is a casecontrol study, with 64 cases and 64 controls. This study was lead in two clinics in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil, that attend patients with health insurance: Núcleo de Oncologia da Bahia and Núcleo da Mama. Two values of Gail model were calculated for each patient, one using self-reported ethnicity and other using ethnicity as unknown. The values were compared between case and control groups, using significance analysis by Student t test. It was also calculated which percentage of patients in case group were at high-risk (≥1.67%) or low risk (<1.67). Results: The mean values of the Gail model was higher in the control group than the mean values in the case group, regardless of which risk was assessed (in five years or life-time) and of ethnicity was used (self-reported or unknown). When used the self-reported ethnicity for calculation, only 26.7% of women with breast cancer would have been identified as high-risk by the Gail model, and when used unknown ethnicity, only 34.7% of these would have been identified. Conclusion: In the present sample, the Gail model was not a good predictor for the development of breast cancer in womens from Bahia.